Coaches and athletes want to spend their time and effort on something that will truly make a difference, which raises the question of how much of performance is mental versus purely physiological. 

Researchers attempted to answer this in a 2023 study with the under-17 Swiss cycling team. The athletes self-assessed a variety of psychological factors, and their VO2max (maximal oxygen consumption) was chosen as the physiological factor. After a 1,300m uphill time trial, analysis of the results showed that VO2max had four times the effect of the predominant psychological factor of perseverance.  

While a simplification, we can say that the answer to the above question was roughly 80% physical versus 20% mental. There are plenty of caveats such as the small sample size and whether all the relevant factors were included or not, and it is unknown how this would translate to other sports or different age groups. However, it is an intriguing result that suggests that while developing aerobic capacity is still the predominant factor for endurance success, the “mental stuff” makes a real and meaningful contribution to race results.

The predominant psychological factor of perseverance is a key component of both mental toughness and grit – two traits that are highly correlated but with different temporal roles. Mental toughness can be defined as perseverance in a goal-directed pursuit in the present moment, while grit is future-oriented perseverance and passion for long-term goals. 

We look more deeply at grit and mental toughness in future sections, including the next one where we examine how fast you can go, and what influences race pacing.